DES MOINES, Iowa — The Iowa caucuses have been the nation's first step in the presidential election process since 1972, and results can sometimes be indicative of how candidates will later perform nationwide.
Many Republicans viewed the 2024 Iowa Caucus as Donald Trump's chance to pull off the largest margin of victory in a non-incumbent race in recent years — or maybe ever. Trump was the far-and-away favorite in the 2024 Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll by J. Ann Selzer & Co., with 48% of caucusgoers picking Trump as their first choice, nearly 30 points ahead of second-place Nikki Haley (20%).
Some years, the margin of victory is minuscule, like the 2012 caucuses when Rick Santorum (29,839) won out over Mitt Romney (29,805) by just fewer than 100 votes. Romney later went on to win the candidacy, though he ultimately lost to Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election.
Other caucuses, however, signal a clear-cut front runner to the nation, typically when an incumbent is running, like 2020's landslide Trump victory or former President Barack Obama's 52% win in 2012 — but that doesn't mean the caucus victors always make it to the White House.
The contested caucuses with the highest victory margin in recent history are the 2000 Democratic caucuses and 2008 Republican caucuses, according to data compiled by Local 5 and the New York Times.
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Was 2024 a record-breaking win for Trump?
The Associated Press projected Donald Trump as the winner of the 2024 Iowa caucuses at 7:31 p.m. CT Monday. With 99% of precincts reporting as of Tuesday afternoon, the former president held 51% of the vote, with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in second at 21.2% and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley at 19.1%.
With a 29.2-percentage point victory based on AP data, Trump has set the mark for the biggest margin of victory in a contested Republican caucus.
"The people of Iowa sent a clear message tonight: Donald Trump will be the next Republican nominee for President. It's now time to make him the next President of the United States," the Trump campaign Super PAC Make American Great Again Inc. said in a statement Monday night.
In fact, Trump was two votes short of winning all 99 of Iowa's counties on caucus night. Haley had 1,271 votes in Johnson County compared to 1,270 for Trump.
Here's the breakdown of the last five non-incumbent caucus races.
2016 Republican caucus
- Cruz: 51,666 (27.6%)
- Trump: 45,429 (24.3%)
- Margin of victory: 3.3% (6,237 votes)
2012 Republican caucus
- Rick Santorum: 29,829 (24.54%)
- Mitt Romney: 29,805 (24.53%)
- Margin of victory: 34 votes, or .001%
2008 Republican caucus
- Mike Huckabee: 34.4%
- Mitt Romney: 25.2%
- Margin of victory: 9.2%
2004 Democratic caucus
- John Kerry: 37.6%
- John Edwards: 31.8%
- Margin of victory: 5.8%
2000 Democratic caucus
- Al Gore: 62.8%
- Bill Bradley: 36.6%
- Margin of victory: 26.2%
2024 Iowa caucus results
Trump's long Iowa campaign pays off big
Trump frequented Iowa leading up to the caucus, holding nearly 20 rallies across the state since March 2023 and avoiding all presidential debates, including the Jan. 10, 2024, Drake University Republican presidential debate hosted by CNN.
But his Iowa campaigning paled in comparison to former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who were notably competing to be Trump’s alternative alongside entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy.
The Associated Press reports that Trump spent nearly $10 million each month in Iowa, and Haley and DeSantis focused millions in ad campaigns attempting to best each other.
All the candidates targeted social conservatives and white evangelical Christians – who are seen as the most influential demographic for Iowa’s GOP caucus.
Although Trump entered the race as a former reality star embroiled in lawsuits, bragging of his sexual exploits and boasting a not-so-Republican past, the conservative faithfuls of Iowa seem to gravitate toward him and his message of retribution.
“I think they are doing the same thing they did to Jesus on the cross,” 72-year-old Iowan Ron Betts told AP in early January. "I can see a lot of correlation there.”
Prior to the caucus, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds endorsed DeSantis over Trump – a move that sparked tensions between the previously amicable pair.
While Trump didn’t complete the “full Grassley” and visit all 99 Iowa counties, he consistently remained ahead of competitors. A December 2023 Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found 63% of likely first-time Republican caucus voters prefer Trump as a first choice.
In October 2023, Trump mistakenly referred to Sioux City as Sioux Falls, but confidently wrote off the criticism he received, claiming: “There's no way Iowa is voting against Trump.”
“I go around saying of course we're going to win Iowa. My people said you cannot assume that,” Trump said at the Orpheum Theater in Sioux City, Iowa, on Oct. 29, 2023.
Despite campaign hiccups, a history of sexual abuse liability and campaign lies, Trump won out America’s heartland and the conservatives within it – with a sizeable margin.
Loyal base propels Trump despite legal developments
Trump's legal troubles – including civil suits and four criminal cases – have had little effect on public approval in Iowa, even as it shaped narratives against his candidacy on both sides of the aisle.
While typically blue states like Colorado and Maine focused on his role leading up to the Jan. 6 riot, attempting to bar him from being listed on the ballot, Republicans like DeSantis think his ongoing lawsuits will skew his presidential run for the worse.
“Nominating Donald Trump would make the 2024 election about his legal troubles rather than the nation's ills under President Joe Biden,” DeSantis said in a Fox News town hall in Des Moines on Jan. 9, 2024.
Trump will head to New Hampshire, Nevada and Virgin Islands primaries a victor.